Tuesday, August 13, 2019


Dr. Ernest Evans is one of the leading local experts in the study of crime trends. He has published several articles, earned TV coverage and given countless presentations on the topic.

Tonight he blesses our blog community with an exceptional analysis of a recent milestone and the resulting impact across Missouri. The insight in the words that follow is so apt that we want to make sure it's front and center with the local angle highlighted. Take a look:

Dr. Ernest Evans: Crime in Kansas City and Saint Louis Five Years After Ferguson

On August 9, 2014 a black teenager, Michael Brown, was shot and killed in Ferguson, Missouri by white police officer Darrell Wilson. A grand jury in Saint Louis county refused to return an indictment against Wilson and the US Justice Department concluded that there was no evidence of a civil rights violation in the tragedy--Wilson eventually resigned from the Ferguson police force.

The death of a young person with their whole life ahead of them is always a tragedy, and so not surprisingly the death of Michael Brown sparked protests not only in Ferguson but all over the country. And, these protests led to a long-needed debate about the racial biases of the US criminal justice system. Specifically, it has been extensively documented that blacks on average receive much longer prison sentences for the same crime as whites, and that blacks are much more likely to be sentenced to death than whites.

However, while this controversy did lead to a much-needed debate on the nation's justice system, it also went too far in many respects. Police departments all over the country were savagely attacked in a series of sensationalistic news stories that were unfair and one-sided. As the great political philosopher Richard Weaver used to say: "Ideas have consequences." And, the consequence of this one-sided and unfair coverage of the nation's police forces was that five years after Ferguson virtually every police force in the nation is seriously under strength.

The police departments in Kansas City and Saint Louis shared in this national decline in the number of cops on the beat. In KCMO at the end of calendar year 2013 there were 1434 officers on the payroll--and the end of calendar year 2018 there were 1234.. In Saint Louis at the end of 2013 there were 1276 officers on the force--at the end of calendar year 2017 (the last year for which there are records) there were 1191 officers on the force.

When police departments get under strength it not only means less time can be spent on outstanding cases, it also hurts morale in the department: Cops have to work a lot of over time, which cuts into family and personal time. And, it is just a fact that you cannot effectively fight crime with under strength, demoralized police forces.

So, not surprisingly, in both KCMO ans Saint Louis there has been a major surge of violent crime in the five years since Ferguson. In KCMO there were 82 homicides in 2014--in 2015 there were 109, in 2016 there were 131, in 2017 there were 151 and in 2018 there were 137--so far in 2019 there have been 89 homicides in the city. In Saint Louis there were 120 homicides in calendar year 2013 and in the first seven months of 2014 (The death of Michael Brown was on August 9, 2014) there were 70 homicides--in Saint Louis in calendar year 2018 there were 186 homicides and in the first seven months of 2019 there have been 110 homicides.

So, where do we go from here? If we as a nation are to reduce the surge of violence that has taken place in most of our cities since 2014 our political class is going to have to do something that they have not been good at in recent years: Compromise. Specifically, they must "square the circle" by making sure that police officers are held accountable for abuses of power, but also making sure that in the adjudication of such cases the accused officers are afforded Due Process and some degree of fair media coverage.

As someone who has been heavily involved in politics his whole life I am well aware that in modern US politics "compromise" is the ultimate "dirty word." However, facts are facts, even if they are not politically correct. If we do not compromise the ongoing controversy about police relations with society then it is virtually certain that we will continue to have rising rates of violent crime all over our nation.

You decide . . .


Rj said...

Really it's a question of respect. The so-called "uprising" gave the media a chance to disrespect police and discount their service. This gave activists a wedge issue and in the community police were seen as oppressors and not people who are putting their life on the line to protect others. It was a horrible episode for the country from every aspect.

There is no bright spot, only the fact that afterwards we saw that voters were more inclined to support candidates who supported police. Even in KC, the police endorsement was a big part of getting quinton lucas elected. Supporting police is the big issue here. Ferguson undermined everyone, the black community most of all.

Anonymous said...

^^^ Nice to see that some other people noticed the double cross from the left too.

Thank you Dr. Evans for this informative and sobering article. It's a welcomed departure from the coverage from the likes of CNN & the like which seemed to celebrate the rioting.

- Garnish

Cgc said...

All of the shops burned down had nothing to do with the killing.

Just like LA, the only shops that weren't torched were those where the owners were armed and allowed to open carry on the street during those nights.

THAT is why open carry laws are vital to our freedom.

Think about.

Anonymous said...

^^^ +100,000

Anonymous said...

In 2018 the new black police chief of St Louis stated in a speech that of the 206 murders in St Louis in 2017, 205 involved at least one black person. Black people in America need a monumental shift in their value system. Monumental is too small of a word, I don't think the word exists for the change the black community needs to undergo. One hundred percent of black peoples problems start at home. No amount of education, money, jobs programs can fix the black community, change has to come from within. I know it won't happen because near as I can tell there is no bottom with them.

Anonymous said...

We need to consult with Anderson Vanderbilt Cooper.

Anonymous said...

^^^ OUCH.

Ouch but true. He really climbed atop his high horse during this. Hasn't been down since.

Anonymous said...

Being in law enforcement doesnt pay what its worth unless you are top brass and corrupt, I would never want to be a cop, its a job that has way to much personal liability.

chuck said...

"...so not surprisingly the death of Michael Brown sparked protests not only in Ferguson but all over the country."

Not surprising, because the 4th estate lied, the "activists" lied, Progressive politicians lied in order to rile up the radical left wing base and generate as much hate for "whitey" and the cops, in order to maintain power, position and sinecure in coming elections. He DID NOT HAVE HIS HANDS UP!

It was a manufactured lie by the Progressive Media and the culture of "Victimization" that is driven by anti-white hatred.

Lies, Race Hoaxes, salacious and fallacious accusations based on absolute lies is what the left traffics in and it pays off well.

Ferguson is prima facie evidence of the categorical, untenable positions that the left holds when it comes to RACE and, prima facie evidence, that it just flat the fuck out doesn't make any difference what objective reality is, the left can say and do anything with ZERO consequences for their lies.

Ferguson is important, NOT because some piece of shit thug was lawfully gunned down by a cop, but because it was the "OLLY OLLY IN FREE" moment for the media and the Progressive politicians who knew that the truth was no longer in any way, anything that needed to be overcome in their quest for power.

Anonymous said...

^^^ +10000000000000000000000000000000

Anonymous said...

Overtime hurting morale LOL reality is cops are experts at being overtime jockeys almost as much as firefighters.

Hey why do cops & firefighters get overtime but teachers don’t???


Reader said...

Thank you Dr. Evans for this post. One of the rare voices of reason in Kansas City who is unafraid to tell the truth.

Byron Funkhouser said...

"...making sure that police officers are held accountable..."

Shooting an unarmed black man in the back in self-defense was considered a "good" shooting. IN THE BACK

"accused officers are afforded Due Process" They get due process, & more, in the grand jury process where their words are never challenged.

It's not just Michael Brown. It was never just about Michael Brown. For a while young unarmed, black men were being killed at a rate of about one a week, with the phrase "I was never so scared in all my life" was repeated over & over again like they were trained to say it.

Your numbers are down because of the actions of politicians, not Ferguson.

Indian Creek Hate Crime Victims said...

^^^^You're a fuckin liar, as always, just like every lying Progressive in the media.





The list is long and revealing.

Here in KC, blacks commit almost ALL OF THE MURDERS and are responsible for the lion's share of crime P.E.R.I.O.D. What a mystery it is, that when these black criminals come in contact with the police, there is a violent result.

Black people commit violent crimes and the results should be obvious to all but retards with the intellects of ants.

We are dead, in Black on White Hate Crimes that no one talks about.

Anonymous said...

Simply put, it is too costly (civil lawsuits) to police blacks and blacks will not cooperate...snitches get stitches. It's a black problem that blacks created and only blacks can solve.

Anonymous said...

I heard that guy in the flag shirt...throwing the incendiary...has since "died". Anybody have any details?

Anonymous said...

Only thing an intelligent person can do is avoid black people and their parts of town. Name the dangerous area The MLK Reserve than normal people will know where not to go. Sad but true.

Anonymous said...

But I thought blacks were supposed to leave Missouri according to the naacp, we should send them all to that fag bLIEron so he can take care of them the way he thinks they should be. Then I bet he would understand what animals they are are start treating them accordingly.

Anonymous said...

6:48 he was murdered in a violent black on black killing, the dude was a murderous drug dealing thug so.......

Anonymous said...

Teachers don't get overtime because they only work nine months a year. Don't get me started with "well they work harder in those nine months". No they don't it's just teachers (mostly women) who like to act like they're oppressed.

Anonymous said...

@ Byron Funhouser Not one word in this article or from the left recently showing why Officer Wilson stopped Michael Brown. Not one word describing how Michael Brown nearly choked out the store owner he just robbed or how he assaulted the man. Everything is about the white officer who shot and killed a man who was trying to attack him. He wasn't indicted because it was clear from the evidence that the thug Michael Brown thought he was invincible and was going to 187 a cop. Yes, Michael Brown sparked the Ferguson controversy, but it was based on lies - lies you believe. Had Wilson been black, Michael Brown would still have been as dead as he is today, and no one would have ever heard of BLM.

Phil Cardarella said...

Police presence as practically nothing to do with the homicides that occur – since many of them occur while the police are effectively "present".

The shooting in Dayton? Nine were killed in over a dozen injured in 30 seconds. In Kansas City's Crossroads, the young woman was murdered while the police were only a few feet away from the fool who was emptying his gun. It is not physically possible to put a police officer on every street corner – let alone have enough policeman to stand next to every potential fool with a gun. So long as we choose to allow every fool to have a gun, we will be unable to control firearms violence.

"A policeman's lot is not a happy one…" Is not new information. Policing a free society is one of the most difficult jobs in the world – made infinitely more difficult when we choose to have an armed populace.. Policing a police state is much easier: you can use force whenever you want to impose your will.

Sadly, police officers across the country are suffering from a self-imposed wound that just keeps pleating. Often through lack of proper training and often through understandable fear some police officers have been allowed to use excessive (and often deadly) force without any repercussions – either criminal or disciplinary. This has the effect of undermining public support for law enforcement.

Most of the people who go into law enforcement want to be "good guys". When the actions of some police officers failed to meet that standard – and and neither training or discipline changes – then it becomes harder to recruit good guys to protect us over armed bad guys.

Springheel said...

Any anti-coppers here ever seen a Western ? Sounds simplistic, but instead of the complex arguments that the left tries to make of things, look at it for what it is. Blacks are the "cowboys" that Earp and Holliday faced off with. The cowboys were thieves and murderers and tried hiding behind their "human rights". The press took the bad guys side cuz it is always safer. The decent citizens backed the lawman and saw right through the media crap. Ain't nothing changed.