TKC EXCLUSIVE!!! BRUTUS RETURNS WITH A BREAKDOWN OF MAYOR FUNKY'S CHANCES FOR REELECTION!!!

TKC Note: Some of you folks think you know who Brutus is but you don't. In any event, I always have to remind people that it's not about the messenger but the message. Today, Brutus blesses us with some intriguing analysis of the upcoming Mayoral race that needs to be well remembered by Kansas City Mayoral hopefuls.

Check it:

A PATH TO VICTORY BY THE FUNK

For the game that is musical chairs for the final two seats in the March 28 run off for Mayor, the most frequently asked question is---can the Funk squeeze into the General Election?

Most, but not all insiders, say NO. He is one and done on primary night, February 28.

Not so fast.

As the number of opponents have added up, Funk's chances have risen too. We now have 5 serious contenders, Mike Burke, Sly James, Jim Rowland, Jonas Hughes, and Deb Hermann.

Tony pointed out weeks ago this is highly unusual. It is almost as if it were an open seat. When there is no incumbent Mayor then 4 to 6 major candidates are the norm, think back to 1979, 1991 and 1999. The election in 2007 was a record breaker with 9 serious candidates running for an open seat.

Incumbent Mayors usually face only one substantive opponent for re-election. But with the Funk we keep getting the unusual.

So how does a guy with a reported 18% re-elect number get re-elected? Well if you go back to those open races of the past you will see that the top two vote getters only get vote total percentages in the 20's. For example, in the last primary Brooks got 26% and Funkhouser received 25.6%. In the 1999 primary neither Kay Barnes nor George Blackwood blew past 30% and there were 5 serious candidates.

Assuming the two top vote getters only need to be in the mid 20% range, the Funk is in shooting range from day one. Can he hold his 18% and add another 7%? Yes he can especially if the other candidates start ignoring him and going after each other believing the sure path to be Mayor is to be the finalist against the Funk.

Funk is rather smartly laying out a position that no one else can claim---the beat up but still standing Don Quixote battling the windmills of special interests. He just might string together enough votes throughout the city to make it. Funk will have to do it with few campaign resources, but he is the only candidate to date with substantial name identification. He has paid for it dearly, but he has it. Hermann thinks she is a house hold name---NOT. And a fair amount of her name ID is associated with a discredited and dysfunctional City Council in the view of the public. Rowland has a base, but not a citywide base of votes so he has a ways to go. The others will have to find some political ground to stand on.

Funk has one important obstacle and that is the Northland. In previous polling his favorable numbers are always highest there. He needs one but not both of the northlanders out of the race. If Jeff Roe stays with him to show everyone again his political skill he has lots to work with with Burke and Hermann. The development attorney and the party switching, now ethics challenged City Hall insider are both raw meat for him.

So Funk makes the General Election against one of the contenders. He will not be without campaign funds at that point. The money folks in KC are chicken shit to be kind and many will be covering their bets. He may not have the most, but he should have enough money to compete. Anything can happen in those last 28 days. His chances will be largely dictated by who he is running against.

And here is the wild card---the Earnings Tax issue that is likely to be on the ballot if a statewide mandate passes in November. If King Rex decides that a helpful tool to wiping out the E Tax is dumping half a million dollars behind a slate of anti E Tax council candidates, this will be one crazy place next March.

A lot is still to play out in the next few months. But don't handicap this race without the Funk on your play card.

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