TKC EXCLUSIVE MUST READ!!! DR. ERNEST EVANS EXAMINES CRIME SURGE STATS AND CONSEQUENCES FOR KANSAS CITY!!!
Today our blog community is blessed with vital public safety information and analysis from Dr. Ernest Evans - One of the top Kansas City crime experts and academic authors.
AMID TWO MORE MURDERS LAST NIGHT BRINGING THE KCMO HOMICIDE COUNT TO 93 . . . And a fatal shooting in KCK . . . Here's some research he's sharing which offers a COMPREHENSIVE look at violence increasing across the nation and the impact on our local streets.
SHOCK!!! CHECK THIS GROUNDBREAKING ANALYSIS FROM DR. EVANS PREDICTING MORE KANSAS CITY BLOODSHED AND KILLING IF OUR LEADERSHIP CAN'T STOP THIS TREND!!!
Here's the word . . .
Dr. Ernest Evans: Responding to the National Crime Surge
In my article last week I noted that in Kansas City, Missouri, like most of the rest of the nation, there has been a major increase in crime in the past two years. What I will do in this article is outline why I feel that we have had this crime surge since the summer of 2014, and what can be done to bring it under control.
Here are the statistics, by race, of homicides in the US in 2014 and 2015:
White: 5397 (2014) 5854 (2015)
Black: 6095 (2014) 7039 (2015)
Hispanic: 1871 (2014) 2028 (2015)
Other/Unknown: 469 (2014) 562 (2015)
So, in 2015 there were 1651 more homicides than there were in 2014. Of these 1651 additional victims, 944 were black men, women and children and 707 were other races.
In reviewing these statistics, two facts stand out: First, the increase in homicides in 2015 over 2014 was quite large (11%)--the largest one year increase in homicides since the increase in 1968 over 1967. Second, a massively disproportionate share of the increase in homicides was accounted for by black victims.
There have been a variety of explanations put forward to explain this large crime increase. Many writers point to the easy availability of guns in the US; others point to unemployment and poor job prospects. However, while there is no one simple explanation for this large increase in crime, an important factor clearly is what is called "the Ferguson effect." Michael Brown, an 18-year old black man, was shot and killed by a white police officer in the town of Ferguson, Missouri on August 9, 2014. Since that tragic incident, the use of force by police against black people has received massive attention by journalists and politicians.
Supporters of the concept of the "Ferguson Effect" like Dr. Heather MacDonald of the Manhattan Institute have argued that this massive attention paid to every incident of police use of force against black people has made cops reluctant to do their jobs in black neighborhoods. So, cops in black neighborhoods all over the country have abandoned these neighborhoods. Nature abhors a vacuum-- this abandonment leads to the gangs and the criminal elements taking over and violence surges.
Personally, I feel that Dr. MacDonald's theory of "de-policing" has some flaws, but she is definitely right that such "de-policing" is a major reason for the surge in violence in America's neighborhoods, particularly its black neighborhoods, in the years since the death of Michael Brown.
If we as a nation are to end this crime surge caused by "de-policing" we are going to have to do something that has gone out of fashion in the past two decades; namely, compromise. On the one hand, it is crucial in a democratic society that police be accountable under the law--a sort of "Dirty Harry" or "Death Wish" response to crime never works out in the real world the way it does in Hollywood. On the other hand, our Constitution in its 5th and 14th Amendments guarantees Due Process for all--there is no exception for cops accused of racist behavior. So, we are going to have to "square the circle": Hold police officers responsible for misconduct, but guarantee them due process in the event they are accused of a crime. If we do not make some sustained effort to "square this circle" there is every reason to believe that the crime surge we have seen since the summer of 2014 will continue: Preliminary statistics from 2016 indicate that in that year homicides will increase 13-14% over their 2015 levels.