Saturday, October 15, 2016


Today our blog community is blessed with vital public safety information and analysis from Dr. Ernest Evans - One of the top Kansas City crime experts and academic authors.

AMID TWO MORE MURDERS LAST NIGHT BRINGING THE KCMO HOMICIDE COUNT TO 93 . . . And a fatal shooting in KCK . . . Here's some research he's sharing which offers a COMPREHENSIVE look at violence increasing across the nation and the impact on our local streets.


Here's the word . . .

Dr. Ernest Evans: Responding to the National Crime Surge

In my article last week I noted that in Kansas City, Missouri, like most of the rest of the nation, there has been a major increase in crime in the past two years. What I will do in this article is outline why I feel that we have had this crime surge since the summer of 2014, and what can be done to bring it under control.

Here are the statistics, by race, of homicides in the US in 2014 and 2015:

White: 5397 (2014) 5854 (2015)

Black: 6095 (2014) 7039 (2015)

Hispanic: 1871 (2014) 2028 (2015)

Other/Unknown: 469 (2014) 562 (2015)

So, in 2015 there were 1651 more homicides than there were in 2014. Of these 1651 additional victims, 944 were black men, women and children and 707 were other races.

In reviewing these statistics, two facts stand out: First, the increase in homicides in 2015 over 2014 was quite large (11%)--the largest one year increase in homicides since the increase in 1968 over 1967. Second, a massively disproportionate share of the increase in homicides was accounted for by black victims.

There have been a variety of explanations put forward to explain this large crime increase. Many writers point to the easy availability of guns in the US; others point to unemployment and poor job prospects. However, while there is no one simple explanation for this large increase in crime, an important factor clearly is what is called "the Ferguson effect." Michael Brown, an 18-year old black man, was shot and killed by a white police officer in the town of Ferguson, Missouri on August 9, 2014. Since that tragic incident, the use of force by police against black people has received massive attention by journalists and politicians.

Supporters of the concept of the "Ferguson Effect" like Dr. Heather MacDonald of the Manhattan Institute have argued that this massive attention paid to every incident of police use of force against black people has made cops reluctant to do their jobs in black neighborhoods. So, cops in black neighborhoods all over the country have abandoned these neighborhoods. Nature abhors a vacuum-- this abandonment leads to the gangs and the criminal elements taking over and violence surges.

Personally, I feel that Dr. MacDonald's theory of "de-policing" has some flaws, but she is definitely right that such "de-policing" is a major reason for the surge in violence in America's neighborhoods, particularly its black neighborhoods, in the years since the death of Michael Brown.

If we as a nation are to end this crime surge caused by "de-policing" we are going to have to do something that has gone out of fashion in the past two decades; namely, compromise. On the one hand, it is crucial in a democratic society that police be accountable under the law--a sort of "Dirty Harry" or "Death Wish" response to crime never works out in the real world the way it does in Hollywood. On the other hand, our Constitution in its 5th and 14th Amendments guarantees Due Process for all--there is no exception for cops accused of racist behavior. So, we are going to have to "square the circle": Hold police officers responsible for misconduct, but guarantee them due process in the event they are accused of a crime. If we do not make some sustained effort to "square this circle" there is every reason to believe that the crime surge we have seen since the summer of 2014 will continue: Preliminary statistics from 2016 indicate that in that year homicides will increase 13-14% over their 2015 levels.


Anonymous said...

This is basically is why Trump has achieved so much success. At least he is talking about crime and Hillary is sweeping the issue under the table. Look at how violent Kansas City has become and there are very few people talking about the violence instead, we've just have a string of rallies for the next Democratic official with zero accountability.

Fred P. said...

^^^^ With 7% turnout for registered voters, the blame is on everybody. Not just Democrats. Doubt that Republicans are going to change that at least not in KC.

Anonymous said...

Thank you Dr. Evans for sharing your research. The information that you have provided is much more detailed and well articulated than anything that I've read on most local news sites. Your work is of the utmost important to our city.

Anonymous said...

Set up a perimeter from Troost east to 435 and Independence Ave to Bannister. De-police that area completely and focus on cleaning up crime outside of it. Black people want to kill so let them kill each other inside the zone. It will be like Escape From New York, anything goes in there. Any black person found outside of the zone in the Plaza, River Market, Westport, Hyde Park, wherever, are subject to stop and frisk and are dealt with harshly if they are found to be doing anything the rest of the world considers uncivilized. If they don't like it, too fucking bad. They are ruining everything. The amount of crime 12% of population commits is unreal. They don't like the treatment, too bad, they've earned it. If they don't want to be harassed by the cops than stay in the zone where you have free reign. They obviously want to live that way or they would change. Considering they continue to drop out of school, have kids they won't take care of or raise properly, are felons by 18, emulate prison culture, proud of being on welfare, etc it is obvious they enjoy the lifestyle. So we'll allow them to stay on the dole just leave the rest of us the fuck alone. If we want a drink in Westport or to walk along in the Plaza we should be able to do such without having to worry we'll be the victim of the violent black race, simple as that. They've proven beyond a shadow of a doubt they are dangerous and will never change so we should quit trying to change them and call a truce. This is what they want, let them have it.

chuck said...

Dr. Evans, as always is prescient and perspicacious.

That said, nothing is going to change and the "Circle" will never be "Squared".

Those thugs in the streets, who murder, rape, rob and assault with impunity are there for a reason. The "Ferguson Effect" is a thin patina covering the incipient arrogation of all political power into a one party oligarchy. Those Obama/Brown/Shirt/Thugs in the streets are the enforcement arm of the Progressive, Globalist, Open Borders cabal that is now almost finished, "Fundamentally Changing" America from a nation with a Rule Of Law, based on the Constitution, to a Fascist based, Tyranny based on party affiliation and connections.

Looters should be shot on sight. Now, we are forced to "understand their anger" and "give them room to destroy". The nightmare of burning city blocks, unrestrained violence and dysfunction haunts the dreams of Police Departments who are powerless to stop rampantly metastasizing African American Criminality by way of the specter of Department Of Justice Law Suits and Fines for enforcing the Rule of Law.

The cellularly corrupt 4th Estate, in league with Progressive Democrat and Republican elitist politicians, the Entertainment Industry and Academia provide cover for the new zeitgeist in the new Amerika as the new normal.

There will be no "squaring" of anything, ever.

America hates your guts white boy. said...

Death and dysfunction from within, will be matched by the immigration of 3rd world, unemployable, uneducated, vote for a living, cradle to grave recipients of American Tax Payer Largesse.

You doubt this?

Here is Paris, yesterday.

Look at that video.

Here it comes...

Anonymous said...

^^^that page has been taken down. What was it?

Anonymous said...

Trump will build a wall around KC and make Sly pay for it.

Anonymous said...

A couple of months ago the police rightly called Forte out for his public comments. He called his own police racists and said they were scared. Fast forward and his cops have quit on him and won't put their families at risk while working for him. Crime is skyrocketing and the city is at risk. Why would anyone choose to be a cop today when they work for people who support this ridiculous narrative.

Bob said...

I would like Dr. Evans to identify the flaws he finds in Heather McDonald's work on de-policing. Merely insinuating that she is wrong in some respects, without further explanation, is not an intellectually honest criticism.

Anonymous said...

As bad as the KCMO numbers are, they don't include KCK. Add those together like any other city in the country and get the real picture. It's even worse than we think.

Tracy Thomas said...

Wow. Just wow. thought provoking essays, Tony--thank you.

The commenters seem to be resigned to this situation at least for KCMO. Reading about the Zone, albeit just an idea, a construct, reminded me that we, as a society, are rolling toward a real life version of that important film, "Minority Report". Where the state has eyes on all of us, and takes out citizens even BEFORE they commit a crime, based on predictable behavior.

Add to that, our own super entrepreneur, Toby Rush, who just sold his EyeVerify company to a Chinese company for $100 million or more. That company uses retinal ID to operate phones and computers. And what is not said is that this will create a retinal data base, much like a DNA database. thus enabling whoever controls that database to follow and track EVERYONE.

One more thing--if you are ever suckered into one of those geneology scams with a cheek swab to learn if you are 5% Cherokee or 25% Eastern European, just know that they capture your DNA and sell it for making designer medical uses. Eventually, Monsanto, which was just bought by Bayer (remember, they worked for the Nazis), will be licensing all medical cures.

OK, time to go outside and walk around the Plaza during the daylight--when it's safe.Er.

Anonymous said...

Prepare for the Apocalypse

Tracy Thomas said...

It occurs to me that the Apocalypse for KCMO will be when Sly James forces the rigged vote on the extension of the Toy Train to the Plaza and UMKC.

(Already folks are questioning just HOW they rigged the passenger counter on the train to get to 1 Million Riders, since we all KNOW they cooked the books there. Five people, paid employee shills, showed up for the fake party. That says it all.)

When these handout hoodlums can ride the Terror Train for free, and terrorize the Plaza and then ride away, and do the same in the crazy completely subsidized Power and Light, plus the already cheated out of their market share, Westport (with a Terror Train stop planned on their east end, at Main)--well--with the exception of stalwart Brookside, there goes the prime real estate of the leadership of KCMO.

Who needs Hoops Night with the Mayor--when you can play Clockwork Orange Marauders for free? Orange is the new badge of honor. It's not for Funkhouser any more. The public schools of the main district are NEVER comin' back. We all know that. Cops are home schooling their kids.

I think the value of real estate in Johnson County just went up again.

Anonymous said...

Where is the leadership in Killa City to reduce the murder rate?
Who is responsible for more not being done to keep neignborhoods safe?
Start with Slie and the usual suspects who enable him to dance like a fool while promoting touristy frou-frou.
The press protects him while he expresses outrage at the increasing murders of innocent children. The usual suspects at the Star are incapable of criticizing the chamber agenda of ignoring the problem. Tourists need their frou-frou. The Clowncil aids and abets it all. All bear a measure of reponsibility. How hard is it to put more cops on the street. Oh, sorry. Doesn't fit chamber line that everything is wonderful and their are no problems in KC. Sorry, Baltimore Cordish needs more tax breaks and subsidies. Any other KC priority will divert resources from developer projects. Crime is spreading out from the inner-city and will eventually affect the suburbs and the chamber fat cats.

chuck said...

TKC, Dr. Evans and the comments all dovetail into the inescapable fact, that the politics of racial division, the need for the Democrat Party to maintain a high level of animus for whites from blacks is an absolute necessity in order to maintain political sinecure.

The press pack dogs are the tip of the spear in controlling and promulgating the Progressive "Narrative".

Stephen hunter explains the "Narrative" as well as anyone.

"The narrative is the set of assumptions the press believes in, possibly without even knowing that it believes in them. It’s so powerful because it’s unconscious. It’s not like they get together every morning and decide “These are the lies we tell today.” No, that would be too crude and honest. Rather, it’s a set of casual, nonrigorous assumptions about a reality they’ve never really experienced that’s arranged in such a way as to reinforce their best and most ideal presumptions about themselves and their importance to the system and the way they have chosen to live their lives."

In other words, salt of the earth, modestly qualified nameless, unelected bureaucrats, in conjunction with the 4th estate, have elevated themselves to a Communist Commissar status, replete with and backed by the power of the Central Government. The power that stems from the end of that Progressive Gun Barrel has, is and will destroy in myriad different ways, you and your life, if you do not bend your knee.

America hates you white boy.

Anonymous said...

First thing we need to do is start firing police for lack of productivity. What other job on earth allows you not to work because you don't feel like it or are depressed?

Second put officers in the ghetto one the streets. It is fact that we have streets in this town where residents have not seen a police car patrolling in years. Cities have got to stop using police for fund raising and get them back into law enforcement.

Third we have to statutorily de-escalate the politicization of police departments and their responses. Police should be public servants. Not servants of entities, but people. Not pawns of their union but supporters of the community.

Fourth we have to stop this trend of Federal agencies renting our police departments out for their pet projects like speeding enforcement and DUI checks. In spite of the gold stars these projects earn for agency bureaucrats their significance in cities with -50 percent homicide clearance rates is ridiculous. The idea that a police officer or department should be rewarded for allowing Federal monies to influence the routine functions of a department is very sad. In spite of the semantics used officers need to be unified and focused on the effects felony crime is having in communities and nothing should distract from that.

Finally, just as we have restrictions on all of our constitutional rights, the right of the free press to lie, agitate and create friction where there would normally be much less needs to be governed. There needs to be accountability when media people slant, lie, stir crap and contribute to violence, looting and criminal unrest. Free press can no longer equal irresponsible press.

Anonymous said...


Unrealistic at best for the most part. The very thing that Evans talks about, "The Ferguson Effect' is REAL. Cops walking the streets are targets for violence and if they resist, they will be fired, sued, or marginalized within the department for being "racist".

If the cops on the street, knew that the city and it's citizens had their backs, then that would be a different thing.

Now, the politicization of the local police departments and the threat of onerous and malevolent interference from a corrupt and biased Department of Justice precludes your suggestions.

Your take on the Press is accurate, but that ship has sailed. the Press is just as biased and corrupt as the Department of Justice, the IRS, the FBI, the State Department et al. The best defense against the corruption and necrosis of the Progressive 4th Estate is local conversations like this on TKC.

The polls on what Americans think of the MSM have never reflected such disdain and contempt as they do now.

Fuck Lester Holt.

Anonymous said...

Seriously, I signed up to be a cop. To help protect people's lives, and I love my job. In the last 5 years we have lost so many people in patrol and we don't have time to do any of the policing I signed up to do. Forte is a liar and has lost the confidence of the entire department. We cannot keep up with the calls, let alone all become community police officers. The mayor has cut this department to the bones. The chief created more special units than anyone has seen before. Detective units have been depleted and clearances have disappeared. Just wait until the public finds out about the lawsuits and investigations!!!!!

It's time for a vote of no confidence!!!!

Bob said...

"What other job on earth allows you not to work because you don't feel like it or are depressed?" It's a perk of pretty much all public employment.

If there are areas which have not seen a police car patrolling in years, which I doubt is true, they are exceedingly few in number.

Since when are speeding and DUI enforcement federal pet projects? Both are state crimes and city infractions, not federal laws.

I am all for punishing deceitful and dishonest media, but unfortunately the First Amendment gives them a license to lie.

Anonymous said...

@8:52. It was a 4-5 minute video of scenes of Parisian streets. Instead of bucolic images of coffee sipping and croissant eating, it looked like downtown Mogandishu - a total Third World craphole.

Anonymous said...

1:34 It is fact that federal agencies not only grant funds to divert police to their favorite projects, but you should well know that most of these city DUI enforcement programs are, in fact, paid for and set up by the Feds. I wont even start on all the task forces and baloney that the Feds set up which diverts officers and effectively dedicates then to performing duties that are not particularly priorities or urgently needed in the scheme of violent felony crime fighting. Just last month the Feds diverted LE at the state and county level to engage some baloney speeding program the Feds had cooked up. Your logic is flawed in that the Feds are not buying police officers to enforce Federal laws. They are buying police officers to implement programs that they believe create statistically safer environments within the subject matter where the agency has some purview. So, if Kansas City has a 1 percent reduction in DUI deaths some bureaucrat gets an "atta boy", but no one seems to get that those police man hours, tax dollars and diverted resources, that will get the bureaucrats promoted, will also deflect energy from felony crime reduction efforts locally. It is a matter of public record. You are welcome to check my FACTS.

If you believe all those streets have been patrolled take a trip and do a survey. Then you will have facts which might shock you.

Just as gun owners are subject to restrictions and just as you can not shout "FIRE" in a crowded theater the reasoning should apply to the press and their exercise of rights.

I agree that bureaucrats both near and far are allowed to adopt dereliction of duty as the end to their bad hair days. Unfortunately WE have allowed this culture to permeate public service. I suppose if w had half as much energy or gumption as those BLM nuts we might effect some change.

Anonymous said...

12:44 I'd counter you, but I'm old, tired and could really give a shit less about ALL the freaking issues in KC now that I live in the burbs. It is when the KC influence, thugs and culture ooze out into the burbs that I become very irritated with the the city's near complete inability to manage that shit hole.

Anonymous said...

12:14 what color is the sky in your world? The police aren't allowed to do their jobs. That's why we should turn it into the DMZ. Put cops along the perimeter where civilized people worknow, live, and enjoy life. Let them inside the DMZ live the way they want to: not taking care of properties, robbing, stealing, hanging out on front porches, and crime-ridden neighborhoods. It's the way they want to live so let them. Just don't br that shit outside of DMZ. When the bodies pile up in the DMZ who cares? It is how they want to live.

chuck said...


Brilliant and informative comment.

Anonymous said...

Well said. I would add that citations of academic sources that support his claims would go a long way toward increasing his credibility.

Anonymous said...

4:56 Why don't you do some work and go do the research. It is important to you right?

Byron Funkhouser said...

"The media lies". That's an asinine statement. The very term "the media" is asinine. It implies a cohesion that doesn't exist & isn't possible.

Here' a sheriff calling for armed rebellion: This sheriff is a black man.

How will you blame these "riots" on anyone but the misinformed, hyperventilating rioters?

The election isn't rigged. That's asinine as well.

Dr. Evans blames the increase in violence on the people protesting the killing of unarmed black men. The solution is simple: Stop killing unarmed black men. NATURALLY, some black men have become so angry at this that they have starting ambushing police officers. It's asinine to blame the BLM movement for these wrongful killings. The first event was the killing of unarmed black men by the police. That's how this started.

Yes, in Kansas City this has been exasperated by the mayors policies. But, only exasperated, not caused.

The police are afraid of black men. That is the kernel of origin. When this is properly addressed the dominoes further down the line will stop falling.

Anonymous said...

Excellent analysis Doc ! Just WALL the shit hole in , leave it to the thug's to kill each other off , make the sole survivor the new Chief of Police ! What do you think ?

Anonymous said...

Byron, you're a f-ing idiot. When the BLM protestors are out in force, burning and looting, you say it's okay because a FEW bad police officers are representative of the whole. Yet, whan a few BLM thugs ambush cops and kill at will, you won't blame the "movement" because it's just a few bad apples.

So which is it, sheep shagger? Do the few represent the whole or not? Decide, and hold it consistant both ways, if you want to claim any intellectual honesty.

Anonymous said...

President Trump will build the WALL FOR FREE , AND TOSS IN SEVERAL THOUSAND BASEBALL BATS ( WOOD , OF COURSE , GOT TO BE ECO - FRIENDLY ! ) ! WE CAN SIT outside of the Plaza wall with a lot of Whiskey & hear the pleasent sounds off wood on bone ! ! Sound good ???

Anonymous said...

Byron's idea of "intellectual honesty" is the daily talking points submitted by Louis Faggakhan, who is as gay as Malcom X was.

Anonymous said...

Tony Bilerun Funkenshyster? Why are you not straightening out Virginia? Must be because you are a fucking fake persona.

Anonymous said...

as a cop in the inner city i can with 100% certainty say i have not seen one kc street cop that has decided to NOT do their job because of the ferguson effect or any other reason. But here's the sad reality there are not enough cops on the street. The number of police overall isn't all that much different than it was years ago; however there are FAR and AWAY less cops actually on the street. Where are they? In a bunch of feel good, touchy feely, units with cutesy acronym names. The same ones that have been completely ineffective; while leaving the patrol officers shorthanded scrambling from call to call to call. just putting out fires as best they can. we are reactionary and there are simply not enough police on the street at any given time to have the extra time to do real police work.

the way to stop the violent crime surge is clear. put more cops on the street. bring back the broken windows approach to policing. sorry that offends the PC crowd. and lastly and more importantly stop giving repeat, career criminal-types, probation on top of probation on top of probation for their myriad crimes.