Tuesday, June 06, 2017

TKC BREAKING NEWS!!! DR. ERNEST EVANS WARNS OF CRIME CRISIS IN KANSAS CITY!!!



Dr. Ernest Evans is a friend of the blog and one of the top-ranking local experts on crime and politics. Today his column offers an ESSENTIAL PERSPECTIVE on crime and Kansas City. Checkit:

Dr. Ernest Evans: The Crime Crisis in Kansas City

In the twelve month period June 1, 2016-May 31, 2017 there were 142 homicides in Kansas City, Missouri. In the five month period Jan. 1, 2017-May 31, 2017 there were 52 homicides in KCMO--compared to 40 in the same time period in 2016. The significance of these statistics is that in the history of KCMO the city's highest number of homicides was in calendar year 1993 when there were 153 homicides in the city. Calendar year 1993 was at the height of the national "crack wars" in the nation's cities--the highest year for total number of homicides in the US was 1993. So, we are facing a major crime crisis in KCMO as the city approaches homicide levels not seen in nearly 25 years.

The crime crisis in KCMO is part of a national surge in violent crime. In the first six months of 2014 homicides in the US declined 6%--but in the last six months of 2014 they rose 5%. In calendar year 2015 there was an 11% increase in homicides in the US. We do not yet have the final figures for 2016, but preliminary statistics indicate that in that year there was an increase in homicides as large as in 2015.

The key reason for this national crime surge since the summer of 2014 is what is often called "The Ferguson Effect." On August 9, 2014 Michael Brown, a young black man, was shot and killed by a white police officer in Ferguson, Missouri. This incident led to increased public and press scrutiny of cases of police shootings of black suspects. Now, I hasten to note that there are more than ample grounds for public concern about the relations between police and the black community, but in the aftermath of the Ferguson tragedy all too often the media coverage was excessively sensationalistic and basic Constitutional rights of Due Process were ignored.

The "Ferguson Effect" is actually two separate effects. The first one is what I call "de-policing." When there is very high public controversy over issues of police-black community relations, cops on the beat start to assume that if charged with racist misconduct they will get neither fair media coverage nor due process by city authorities frantic to avoid civil disorder. So, out of sheer self-survival they stop doing their duties in black neighborhoods. Nature abhors a vacuum, so the gangs and the criminal elements take over these neighborhoods and crime explodes.

The second "Ferguson Effect" takes place over time. With so much negative publicity about the police in the US in the past three years a number of veteran cops have told me: "No one wants to be a cop anymore." On the eve of the Ferguson tragedy about 80% of the nation's police forces were below their authorized strengths. Now that figure is close to 100%.

KCMO has witnessed both types of the "Ferguson Effect." In earlier columns I have documented how the crime surge in the city since the summer of 2014 has been particularly serious in the black neighborhoods of the city. And, the KCPD has been losing officers faster than they can be replaced: In calendar year 2013, the last year before the Ferguson tragedy, there were 1427 sworn officers in the KCPD--as of March 31, 2017 there are 1294.

Since this is a national crime problem there is only a limited amount that local authorities can do to stop it. In this connection, I would salute outgoing Chief of Police Darryl Forte for his leadership in the years since the Ferguson tragedy. Chief Forte has had to walk the same fine line that every police chief in the country has had to walk in the last three years: On the one hand he has to reassure the black community that racist misconduct by his officers will not be tolerated; but on the other hand he has to reassure the men and women under his command that he will defend them against unfair charges of racism. The Chief has done a good job in walking this fine line and for that reason I feel that, bad as the city's crime problems are, he has kept them from getting a lot worse--and for that all of us in the KC-area should be appreciative of his time as Chief of Police.

The real burden of relieving the nation's crime problems lie with the national political class. Let me say that as a lifelong political scientist I am well aware that in contemporary US politics the ultimate "dirty word", on both sides of the aisle, is "compromise." But, if we are to stop the ongoing surge of violence in America we are going to have to agree to compromise. Specifically, we as a nation must agree that while black lives do indeed matter and that therefore racist misconduct by police officers cannot be tolerated, our Constitution contains explicit promises of Due Process and thus all cases in which police officers are accused of misconduct must be adjudicated with fairness and also that media coverage of such cases must be as fair and as non-sensationalistic as possible.
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55 Comments:

Anonymous said...

This should be a wake up call for our community. It's time to do something that doesn't involve more streetcar or empty economic promises!

KC DJ said...

Not just a crime crisis, but also a leadership crisis.

Anonymous said...

Thank you Dr. Evans!

Anonymous said...

Everything is OK according to KCPD.
You are safe.
And it's business as usual.

Viggo said...

Hard to believe that we wasted a whole year talking about "community based" solutions when what we need are more police on the ground. What will be the solution to this? More meetings and more money to activists instead of law enforcement.

Anonymous said...

Form another useless "Task Force" or come up with another Acronym program like NOVA, Comm Stat, Kansas City Together.

Anonymous said...

A Taxpayer rip off.
We built a new police academy,
Two new patrol stations,
New Police Cars, A new Helicopter,
Shot Spotter, drones, and passed the earnings tax.
The community has supported the PD only to be let down by the lack of initiative of the police to fight crime.

Jeffrey McDonald said...

"The Ferguson Effect" has been explained 6 ways from Sunday, and no one disagrees with the premise, who has more than a cursory interest in the outrageously disproportionate criminality of the African American community.

There is something being overlooked in my opinion. What is the lubrication on the wheels of this destructive, obvious and ongoing tsunami of murder? It is, the Progressive "Narrative" of black victimhood and the implication and insistence that all whites are guilty of racism (Industrial Racism. White Privilege etc. etc. etc. ). This "Narrative" pounded relentlessly down our throats and up our asses day in day out, 24/7 has a by product premise. That is, that crime is CAUSED, NOT COMMITTED.

It is "Society" and racism that causes blacks to wreck every thing they touch and anyone in close proximity.

The Progressives who continue to promote this false narrative, use the lies, deceit and legerdemain to further their own political interests in pursuit of power, money, sinecure and position.

Anyone with the brain of even an idiot like Maxine Waters can understand, at this point, "The Ferguson Effect". Progressives, Liberals, Democrats don't DO NOT give a fat flying fuck, about all of the dead black people (And certainly not the dead white people.) who are mowed down that this sanctimonious tsunami of entitlement and victimhood produces as a by product, they only care about that cash, that power and that cheese. The Main Stream Media, gleefully reports ANY, ANY, ANY, hoped for, possible politically incorrect sin by the Police, which in turn excites the black base to vote Democrat.

Progressives breed and fertilize this narrative in the fecund, vacant, insipid minds of the idiots they profess to protect. The result, is the "Protected Class" killing, murdering and raping the shit out of any and everyone in sight while the "Catch 22" screams for "Justice" are funneled through and up the sleeves, seasoned with mirth, of America's Democrat, now Antifa leaders.

I am dead, in a black on white hate crime, that no one cares about, because I was white.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the heads up, Dr. Evans. I would never have known this was a crisis. I thought this was normal.

Anonymous said...

Dr Evans is an idiot, quit blaming white people for everything the blacks do wrong. It's their choice to steal, rape, murder and destroy everything not whiteys. Blaming the police and white people in general is an excuse. White privilege my ass, I've never seen it,'s just another made up excuse for lazy black people to get the government to give them more money they didn't earn.

Anonymous said...

The blacks have to blame somebody. Apparently their brain can't handle work or responsibility like all other people of color can

Anonymous said...

We need more birthday parties to get to 154. More people walking the trails. More dumbasses walking around Westport. More leniency from Jean Petersucker Baker. We can do it!

Anonymous said...

^^^^^+1

Anonymous said...

There's not much more the public can do for the police we supported them and they let us down.

Anonymous said...

Well thought-out article,dr.Evans,and I can buy it ,too...But I thought this whole "De-policing" thing,at least here in kc,started with a fat Somalian bitch and a miscarriage ?? Remember when that was your theory on why Black's went buck wild ??

Anonymous said...

when Barry obama couldn't charge that white cop in ferguson Barry obama had Eric holder create the ferguson affect

Anonymous said...

Dr Evans please return to your safe place and don't come out anymore

Anonymous said...

Dr Evans, please explain why michael brown was shot. Oh, that's right, he was trying to kill a cop! Doesnt seem to make a very good argument for the ferguson effect then does it

Anonymous said...

Don't let the truth get in the way of a good story. Michael Brown got shot because he deserved it.

Anonymous said...

But it was "a tragedy" damnit

Anonymous said...

I like it.jiggs on both sides and across the street from Wright and ketz house. They absolutely abhor any form of "racism" & adore diversity.

Thats why they live in Leewood .

Anonymous said...


Dr Evans You're a little late... DUH

Evergreen College in Washington State has declared a day without whites, when a white professor disagreed with this he was threatened with punishment.

Kansas City are you going to take this?

Kansas City police officers, "the Ferguson effect"... the one Dr Evans refers to as neglecting your duties in black neighborhoods is just and fair, keep up the good work, and remember Sly James wants you in harms way, his cut back on Police officers is his punishment to you!

Michael Brown was a criminal who physically attacked and tried to kill a police officer, Michael Brown is dead at his own hand! Michael Brown's mother is an arsonist and walks free with the right to have room to destroy.

Anonymous said...

It's really not important how many coons kill each other. We should turn our focus to catching them and making sure they are in prison for a long time

Anonymous said...

Who are Wright and Ketz

Anonymous said...

Dana Wright Kris ketz
They're married

Anonymous said...

They are the "white privilege" hahaha

Anonymous said...

What are you gonna do about all this mess that you have evolving,revolving & unfolded theories on,Evans? Jabber incessantly about it ? Ingeniously come up with new theories & tell people about them ?

You bore me.

Anonymous said...

Notice how black lives matter is nowhere to be found when black children get gunned down by other black youth in the streets? When mothers get shot in their own homes in drive by shootings?

BLM is pathetic and so are you sissy liberal fucks.

Anonymous said...

I thought Kris Ketz was a homo. Is he married to another dude?

Anonymous said...

Black lives only matter if they get shot by a white guy. Otherwise they could care less.

Anonymous said...

Time for sane people to escape KC, take their money and let the dregs have the shit hole. Why would a civil human being even consider residing in a town with the priorities, tax and spend policies and crime? KC is rapidly reaching the point where whatever it is they do just isn't worth it. The best that could happen is KC be unincorporated as a city, the government be abolished and it be allowed to implode.

Anonymous said...

5:26

HI CHUCK

Silverback Sly said...

5:26 you can technically say Dana Wright is a man

Anonymous said...

people keep saying it's bad guys killing bad guys so who cares.

my opinion is that is not right.

i think it's keading to a dystopian society that will fall and take everyone down.

leaders need to restore civil order.

Anonymous said...

And there lies the rub.......

Anonymous said...

I thought the crime was going to stop on day 1 of Trump's presidency. That's what he said? What happened. I also thought he was going to defeat ISIS in 30 days. What happened?

Anonymous said...

I'm still waiting for Obama's Hope and Change to kick in.... 9 years later.
What happened?

Jim Claxton NKC said...

I don't blame police. But I do know that the solution to getting this murder rate down starts with supporting them and making sure there are more officers on the streets with the support they need. Look at the number of cops in KC down to a 10 year low. If you want to know the problem, that's a good place to start.

Anonymous said...

A great post Dr. Evans!

I only hope that our mayor and the council are reading and will heed your warning. I would like more of a focus on crime and less on streetcars and the airport.

Anonymous said...

Wasn't wonder boy D J Pierre on come committee or other to deal with this?

Anonymous said...

President Trump is soft on crime.

Anonymous said...


Democrats blame crime increase on the Russians

Byron Funkhouser said...

This is nonsense. Crime didn't go up because of "de-policing". It is impossible to prevent someone from killing someone else.

The police solve crimes, but it's magical thinking to suggest they have any effect on anyone else's murderous intentions.

Anonymous said...

Shut the fuck up, Byron. You're a retard, remember?

Anonymous said...

He is fucked up but, no doubt but the cop's do not have crystal ball's & can't control others homicidal tendancies..the prosecutor can damn sure handle it though.THE FIRST TIME! !!!

Anonymous said...

So true. There is better odds of success at decent COMMUNITIES when ENOUGH of that COMMUNITY is doing their jobs to prevent and/or prosecute all levels of CRIME! Families, Faith communities, neighbors, schools, businesses, and GUBMINT help HOLD EVERYONE TO ACCOUNTABILITY IN A CIVILIZED SOCIETY!!!

Time for Mommy & Daddy--meaning, Citizens & Government to do more TOUGH LOVE--DEMAND PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY. Ensuring more punitive measures get awarded to serious and repeat offenses, while mandating chances at decent training/employment for first and nonviolent charges.

A skilled labor training program would be better use of part of the nearly $BIL airport redo money, and renovations in phases employing our current skilled trades alongside apprenticeship programs.

Anonymous said...

All I know is my President, Donald J. Trump promised that all of this was going to stop once he became president. He is the law & order president remember? He wouldn't lie to me would he? Why hasn't this stopped?

Crazy Clown said...

But', But', KC has like 5 or 7 Anti-Crime Groups that MAYOR SLY JAMES has Funneled Millions of Tax Payer Dollars secretly,,,,

Why how can this be ?????

All those Anti-Crime Groups holding their monthly KOOL-AID parties to raise even more revenue so they can hang out at the CASINO'S and spend YOUR Dollars !!!

Ask yourselves this :

If all those damn ANTI-CRIME Groups were so effective and actually doing the job as was intended,,,,,,

Then why we never hear of any of them reporting a Crime or Stopping any of these crimes and Murders ??????

Where they at, the CASINO'S fighting Crime on the Triple Diamond Machine or the Lucky 7,, see em' there all the time !!

Crime Fighters they are, fightin' those Slot Machines and Triple Round Bonuses,,,,

OK time for the FREE Buffet, so they can fight more CRIME, while stuffing their Guts with Lobster & Crab Leg Fest night !!!!

Anonymous said...

Donald Trump is failing this city.

Anonymous said...

^^^. When was he elected mayor?

Anonymous said...

What I can not understand is why the fuck it takes the boons this long to off each other. No one can be multiplying that fast. Jesus shit people lets emancipate this town and get on with the clean up.

Anonymous said...

When he promised that all this carnage would end on his inauguration. It hasn't and it doesn't like it will. Why did he lie?

Anonymous said...

Check points on Prospect, not Main St.

Anonymous said...

8:06, you repeating your delusional shit is getting old. Trump has been doing his part, Sly isn't doing his. Why is that so difficult for you to,acknowledge?

Anonymous said...

i believe this is a real concern, it sucks that the only thing i feel i can do is hide and try to make myself feel better with telling myself if they come through that door ill take care of it myself.