Monday, March 12, 2018

TKC BREAKING NEWS!!! LATEST POLLING: MISSOURI SEN. McCASKILL STAYS WINNING OVER AG HAWLEY BUT NOT BY MUCH!!!



Right now we've got FIRST NEWS regarding the most important political contest in all of the nation.

Here's the skinny . . .

NEW POLLING REVEALS SEN. McCASKILL LEADS AG JOSH HAWLEY AT THE OUTSET OF THIS HEATED MISSOURI SENATE BATTLE!!!

Take a look:

Gravis Marketing Missouri Poll Claire McCaskill 42% - Josh Hawley 40%

Deets:

Democrats are defending ten Senate seats in states that were won by Donald Trump in 2016. One of those seats consistently regarded as one of the most vulnerable is Clare McCaskill in Missouri. A new Gravis Marketing poll of registered voters in Missouri gives Clare McCaskill a narrow 42%-40% edge over likely general election opponent, State Attorney General Josh Hawley. 18% of voters remain undecided.

Gravis Marketing Managing Partner Doug Kaplan noted that “This is a state that was a purple state in 2000, but has become quite red over the past 18 years. This will be a very close race. The Senate might hinge on this race.” Democrats need to net two seats to win the Senate. With options limited to Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee with more outside chances in Mississippi and Texas, Democrats will need to minimize loses among Trump state incumbents like Clare McCaskill. Trump won Missouri by 18.5% in 2016.

Kaplan points out that despite McCaskill’s slight edge today, “there are certainly numbers that she should be concerned about.” Voters give McCaskill a lackluster 42%-43% job approval spread while her opponent has a 37%-34% approval rating. While Hawley’s numbers are not stellar, he has more room to grow. While only 14% of voters are uncertain about McCaskill, 29% say the same about Hawley. Roy Blunt narrowly won a 2.79% plurality in 2016 to win a second term while Donald Trump was trouncing Clinton in the state. Blunt holds a 33%-48% approval rating, which is constant with how far he under performed Trump in 2016.

One possible red flag for Hawley is the make up of the undecided voters in the poll. While only 14% of Republicans are undecided at this point, 23% of Democrats are currently undecided. McCaskill holds a 47%-37% edge among independents in the poll with 17% undecided. The age of the undecided voter is also lower than the decided voter. 30% of 18-29 and 25% of 30-44 year-olds are undecided compared to only 8% of 55-64 years old and 6% of those 65 or older. There are also more female undecided voters (23%) than male undecided voters (13%).



Donald Trump’s approval rating has taken a hit in Missouri, but he still remains more popular than recently indicted Governor Eric Greitens. Trump holds a 46%-50% approval spread, while Greitens is at 34%-50%. Voters are split (37%-37%) on whether Governor Greitens should resign. Multiple Republican members of the Missouri legislature have called on Greitens to resign.

The Conservative lean of the state is highlighted in the questions Gravis asked voters about various issues. Voters approve of the Tax Reform law 37%-35% and say they would be more likely to support a candidate that supported the bill by a 36%-29% margin. Voters are split over whether there should be a full ban on the ability to obtain an abortion in Missouri 42%-42%. The President’s immigration reform plans are also above water among voters by a 47%-42% margin.

The bipartisan support for increased gun control was something that may have shifted recently after the recent. Parkland School Shooting in Florida. 84%-11% support universal background checks, 70%-24% support raising the minimum age to purchase a firearm to 21 and 49%-40% support a ban on all semi-automatic weapons.
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We've got more data because we know our blog community really likes to drill down . . .

Fun time charts & graphs with more deets about the recent survey of voters . . .



Crosstabs for those of us who really love killing our eyes . . .



Developing . . .

22 Comments:

Anonymous said...

Actually, this is good news for Hawley. The "room to grow" part of the data shows that he is gaining momentum.

Anonymous said...

this is about name recognition.

Anonymous said...

Polls don't mean a thing. 2016 presidential campaign/election debunked polls.

Anonymous said...

As long as Hawley adamantly insists anyone can buy a military assault rifle, presumably for the time they will fight against an autocratic government.
OMG....We have arrived. Missouri voters will overlook all financial, foreign interference, and moral deficiencies to make America presumably great again. Reality is not an important issue in the Missouri.

Gus said...

You obviously don't even know what a military assault rifle is 11:37. Odds are you used that term intentionally just to scare the sheep.

The only reality that seems to be bothering you, is the reality that among the voting public and actually decides elections, liberal progressive politics are as dead as Mussolini .

Anonymous said...

Claire might be beatable, but not by Hawley, who reminds everybody of the workplace suckup who became their boss before he laid them off.

Anonymous said...

They called me last week for a survey all happy to have me answer their questions and once I told them I was a republican they hung up! Lmao!

Anonymous said...


McAsskill has the Hillary turnout prob among Democrats -- black females won't get up off the couch to go vote for some damn blonde White wimmins

as long as Repubs have a "normal" candidate like Hawley, instead of a whack job like Akin - they got this one in the bag.

Anonymous said...

Absolutely anybody but Claire !!!!!!!!!

Gus said...

It appears a lot of folks don't know what to wish for on this one. In my mind it's not even a choice. It's way past time to send that disgusting old cow Claire, along with her free shit politics, to the rendering plant.

Anonymous said...

The sample under-represents Trump voters. The survey shows a 46% to 38% vote for Trump in 2016. The actual numbers in 2016 were 56% to 37%.

Also, people generally remember voting for the winner in elections, so the under-representation is probably higher than that.

Anonymous said...

I agree at 11:37, people and their assault rifles can go pound sand. My Ruger mini-14 is the only hunting weapon I need. Not an AR(malite) anything.

Anonymous said...

^^^Boring. No gun talk please the only thing more boring is golf talk and political talk. Dull dullards being dull.

Anonymous said...

IT'S ALL IN THE DETAILS!

Headline reports: Gravis Marketing Missouri Poll
Claire McCaskill 42% - Josh Hawley 40%

Ok, now let's look at the details to see exactly who responded to this poll. And we'll assume that they answered truthfully.

What is your party affiliation?
36-percent Democrat; this overstates actual Democrats
26-percent Independent/Other; this understates actual Independents
38-percent Republican; this understates actual Republicans
THIS POLL OVER-SAMPLED DEMOCRATS, RESULTING IN A SKEW FOR MCCASKILL

In 2016 Presidential election, who did you vote for?
46-percent Trump
38-percent Clinton
6-percent Johnson
2-percent Stein
9-percent Didn't vote
KEEP IN MIND THAT 9-PERCENT OF THESE POLL RESPONDENTS DIDN'T BOTHER TO VOTE

Favorable/Unfavorable current opinion of President Trump?
43-percent Favorable
5-percent No Opinion
51-percent Unfavorable

If more than half of poll respondents currently have an unfavorable opinion of President Trump, they're likely not Republicans or Republican-leaning Independents, thus it's surprising that this skewed poll only resulted in McCaskill up by 2 points.

REALITY CHECK: Actual 2016 Election Results
Trump 56.9-percent; won all counties but 3
Clinton 38.2-percent
Johnson 3.5-percent
Stein 0.9-percent

Democrats = 34-percent of voters, and 84-percent of them voted for Clinton
Republicans = 39-percent of voters, and 92-percent of them voted for Trump
Independents = 27-percent of voters, and 61-percent of them voted for Trump

RESULT = POLL WAS DESIGNED TO GIVE MCCASKILL THE LEAD BY OVER-SAMPLING DEMOCRATS = BAD POLLING!!!!

Anonymous said...

Everyone is well aware no one uses rifles with high capacity magazines for hunting. These guns are terrible home defense weapons and are intended to kill targets and very bad "hombras" at a distance.
No need to worry though, after an entire 1st grade was killed, collectively hundreds of other students in lesser shootings, and hundreds of adults attending a concert, were shot by a AR15's or similar rifles.... absolutely neither of these candidates will attempt to control these guns. So Missouri will vote the republican, like the president and very similar governor are undoubtedly more fiscally responsible and morally superior.

Anonymous said...

^^^^ you’re an idiot

Butch said...

Vote Hawley, an additional wealthy Republican to help the poor people

Anonymous said...

Oh Jesus Christ, way way way too long. Didn’t read!

Anonymous said...

The only poll that counts is the one on election day. Just ask POTUS Hillary Clinton.

Anonymous said...

The presidential polls were right. Clinton's advantage nationally was 2.1%, the same margin by which she won.

Trump won the electoral college, not the popular vote.

Anonymous said...

Hawley is prettier on his worst day than ClAIRhead is on her best.

Anonymous said...

12:20 Thank you for the electoral college. We don't need liberal idiots to govern us. Look at the States they do control. Freak zones out of control.