Thursday, August 25, 2016

REMEMBER THE 'BRADLEY EFFECT' AND LIKELIHOOD THAT MISSOURI IS LYING ABOUT VOTING AGAINST TRUMP!!!



Impressive TV station reporting offers an important historical perspective about recent poll results which reveal the penchant for denizens of flyover country to be polite, even to pollsters.

Checkit:

Political Expert: Missouri Poll Favoring Democrats May Be A Mirage

Here's the word:

Columbia College Political Scientist Terry Smith says the numbers would normally be a positive sign for Democrats, but he thinks voters could be lying to pollsters. “(This) would under count real outsiders like Trump and like Greitens” said Smith. “They might say they don’t know , or they might say they are voting for Clinton or Koster, when in fact they’re voting for Trump or Greitens.”

Smith notes there’s a previous case in which voters lied to pollsters. In the 1982 California governor race, African American Democrat Tom Bradley consistently led in the polls, but ended up losing the race. The phenomenon is known as the “Bradley effect”.

In much the same what that anonymous speech is free speech . . . Our sacred secret ballot offers Americans the blessed opportunity to say one thing and do another just like our politicians.

And so, many among our blog community have expressed skepticism about recent polling in Missouri putting Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie but this Missouri prof. offers an insightful and proven trend which provides evidence of more reason for doubt.

Developing . . .

10 Comments:

Anonymous said...

In 2004 a number of polls circulated by the liberal media suggested that George Bush was trailing and the media believed in their own hype. Why should the polls that are done today by the same liberal media be any different?

In typical fashion, the left will continue to try to convince the American public that the polls are correct. It will act as a smokescreen when they try to tamper with the voting devices come election day.

Anonymous said...

Bull$hit. Who has met a Trump voter who is too embarrassed to admit they're going to vote for that orange turd? They're too stupid to lie and actually believe he's "just like them".

Anonymous said...

7:33 - stop lying. The biggest gap between the candidates is the gender gap - Hillary losing men. Hillary depends upon gullible idiots like you that base their decisions on emotions, not fact. You believe Hillary is going to fix income inequality, with the hundreds of millions of dollars that she took from Wall Street? That she can be trusted, with all her lies about her email server and the Clinton Foundation money laundering? That she's going to be open and transparent, when she hasn't held a press conference in 9 months? Stop been a Sheeple and apply just a bit of critical thinking.

Anonymous said...

In responding to the latest revelation about her meeting with all Clinton Foundation donors during her tenure as Secretary of State, Hillary said "There's a lot of smoke, but there's no fire." She depends upon stupid people like 7:33 to continue supporting her despite her record of corruption and incompetence.

Anonymous said...

His name is Bryan Stalder and he posts here quite frequently. Ask him.

Anonymous said...

Missouri is no longer a bell weather state. We've really become mean and insignificant.

Phil Cardarella said...

While it is true that the "Bradly Effect" exists (Responders lying because they are embarrassed to admit bigotry), good pollsters can allow for that. (One way is to ask who you think your neighbors will vote for, since it seems to OK to admit your neighbors are bigots.)

Oddly enough, 2012 polling for Mitt showed a "reverse Bradley Effect" in that a number of white folks did not want to admit that they were going to vote for the reviled black guy -- which is why Mitt and Karl Rove were so shocked at losing Ohio.

Anonymous said...

It is all in the science and right now the constants can not even be identified. Polls are pretty much shit until we get pretty close to election day and then it is a crap shoot. If I was Clinton I wouldn't be acting to cocky just yet.

Silvestor orgalthorp said...

1148
How do you explain 2004? Kerry was so confident that on Election Day he was giving press conferences about his upcoming cabinet
As far 2012, maybe no one wanted to admit they were voting for a Jim jones style cult

Anonymous said...

Phil Cardarella - it's more like Trump voters have seen other Trump supporters assaulted by the Prog thugs, and are not publicizing their vote. The bigots are in the Hillary/Soros camp.