TKC READER SUNDAY STAT STUDY: RISING KANSAS CITY CRIME RELATED TO WORKING PO'FOLK ECONOMIC HARSH TIMES?!?
Theories on crime are always of interest as Kansas City endures another local murder spike but this link suggestion offers an interesting correlation backed up by some impressive charting.
The annual growth rate in the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) is shifted forward by a year to reveal how its movements tend to show up a year later in the crime rate.
The TKC reader fears this might be over the head of our readership but this line makes it simple . . .
The implication is that crime rate data follow the inflation rate. If inflation rates should rise, experience says that crime rates should also rise. Saying it another way, the falling crime rates since the peak in 1980 are reliably associated with the falling inflation rate since then. This data does not cover all of the history of crime in the U.S., only the period of reliable statistics on crime gathered and reported by the FBI. But it is 55 years’ worth of data, and so at some point we should start to accept that the correlation is valid.
Something to consider . . . Jobs have continued to exit Kansas City proper and that has corresponded to higher crime . . . Yes, in white neighborhoods too . . .
What's worse is that the rising interest rate source of this statistical analysis should only get worse later this year . . .
Why the Fed Can't and Shouldn't Raise Interest Rates
Furthermore, it's hard to argue that Kansas City hasn't seen greater gentrification and rising utility rates over the past few years which continue to put strain on the working poor . . .
And so, like it or not, there are more than a few well-informed denizens of our blog community who have made a correlation between increasingly harsh economic times and that uptick in recent crime around Kansas City and the nation.
Five Thirty Eight: How To Make Sense Of Conflicting, Confusing And Misleading Crime Statistics
Wall Street Journal: Trying to Hide the Rise of Violent Crime
CNN: Violent crime rising in US cities, study finds
You decide . . .