Sunday, July 31, 2016

TKC READER SUNDAY STAT STUDY: RISING KANSAS CITY CRIME RELATED TO WORKING PO'FOLK ECONOMIC HARSH TIMES?!?



Theories on crime are always of interest as Kansas City endures another local murder spike but this link suggestion offers an interesting correlation backed up by some impressive charting.

Checkit:

The annual growth rate in the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) is shifted forward by a year to reveal how its movements tend to show up a year later in the crime rate.

The TKC reader fears this might be over the head of our readership but this line makes it simple . . .

The implication is that crime rate data follow the inflation rate. If inflation rates should rise, experience says that crime rates should also rise. Saying it another way, the falling crime rates since the peak in 1980 are reliably associated with the falling inflation rate since then. This data does not cover all of the history of crime in the U.S., only the period of reliable statistics on crime gathered and reported by the FBI. But it is 55 years’ worth of data, and so at some point we should start to accept that the correlation is valid.

Something to consider . . . Jobs have continued to exit Kansas City proper and that has corresponded to higher crime . . . Yes, in white neighborhoods too . . .

What's worse is that the rising interest rate source of this statistical analysis should only get worse later this year . . .

Why the Fed Can't and Shouldn't Raise Interest Rates

Furthermore, it's hard to argue that Kansas City hasn't seen greater gentrification and rising utility rates over the past few years which continue to put strain on the working poor . . .

And so, like it or not, there are more than a few well-informed denizens of our blog community who have made a correlation between increasingly harsh economic times and that uptick in recent crime around Kansas City and the nation.

Further reading:

Five Thirty Eight: How To Make Sense Of Conflicting, Confusing And Misleading Crime Statistics

Wall Street Journal: Trying to Hide the Rise of Violent Crime

CNN: Violent crime rising in US cities, study finds

You decide . . .

15 Comments:

Bob said...

"...at some point we should start to accept that the correlation is valid." This statement actually does not make sense. The data correlate or they do not. Assuming the data are accurate, there is no such thing as a valid or invalid correlation.

Anonymous said...

Just another KCPD failure.
You can give people money but that does not mean they will get out from behind the desk.

Anonymous said...

Somehow I don't think most of the perps in the recent crime wave coursing through KCMO closely track the CPI or other economic indicators.
Of course, according to Sly, it's the Missouri state gun laws that are to blame for the chaos in his city, so maybe one empty excuse is a good as another.
Frosty.

Anonymous said...

No its not the economy, its broken windows per Daryle Forte.

Anonymous said...

I disagree.
This correlation is suprious.
Surely there's some other blame.

Not interest rates.
I don't think so.
Guessing again is in order.
Gains have been made by all.
Everyone has benefitted.
Really a lot out there.
So there is some other cause.

Anonymous said...

Ignite the printing presses at the Fed from red hot to white heat, plunge the nation’s fiscal equation back into multi-trillion deficits and crank-out Washington’s free stuff like never before.

That should fix it.

Anonymous said...

I fully expect KC will be in the top 10 most dangerous cities rankings again this year.

What a frosty achievement!

Anonymous said...

Correlation is not the same as causation. Take a stats class.

Anonymous said...

you can't mention stats or facts or figures to some people or you are branded a racist.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/07/12/cnn_panel_devolves_into_shouting_when_blacklivesmatter_supporter_rejects_statistics_on_race_and_crime.html

https://cincinnatiisadump.wordpress.com/category/povery-causes-crime-meet-white-appalachia/ said...

It's black people, plain and simple, period, end of report,

https://cincinnatiisadump.wordpress.com/category/povery-causes-crime-meet-white-appalachia/

Anonymous said...

There is no correlation between most of the above comments, and the original article's assertion that rising/falling crime rates lag the inflation rate by one year.

Obviously most failed to read the article.

Anonymous said...

Missouri has the worse poverty in the US in case you wonder why all the cop killers are coming from here.

Anonymous said...

Damn near got murdered by that shit hole Diebels on the Plaza , Groinds buy them bluntz there ! White people should avoid that Shit Hole , if you want to live !

Anonymous said...

Not to worry. Poor don't have much of nothing. Will go where the money is. Crime will travel out of said area. It is depleted. Can't squeeze blood from a turnip. It's moving out already. Bolder. Faster. Broke folks are broke. What? Steal soap? Bleach, cleaning stuff with water and Kool-aid? Lol....go where they have money. Take from them. The Robbin' Hood Effect.

Anonymous said...

8:30 - yeah, I read the article, and obviously you didn't - fucking lying moron.